If traders in Ant Group have been hoping China’s greatest fintech would quickly bounce again from the last-minute suspension of its $37bn itemizing final week, Beijing was fast to disappoint them.
In feedback that capped off a disastrous week for Ant and Jack Ma, the group’s controlling shareholder and China’s richest man, the banking regulator prompt it might start treating fintechs extra like banks — a transfer that would drastically slash their valuations and attractiveness to traders.
“In accordance with fintech’s monetary nature, we are going to carry all monetary actions below a unified scope of supervision,” Liu Fushou, chief authorized counsel on the China Banking and Insurance coverage Regulatory Fee, mentioned on Friday.
Ant Group had been set to start buying and selling final week when Beijing on Monday abruptly introduced new draft rules for fintechs and a day later suspended the itemizing.
The prospect of being pressured to navigate a regulatory shake-up earlier than it could possibly even ponder returning to the market is a shock for a bunch that was poised to carry the world’s largest preliminary public providing with a valuation of $316bn.
Ant’s funds platform Alipay is ubiquitous in Chinese language commerce. Its fast-growing CreditTech client lending enterprise, which serves as a high-tech matchmaker between debtors and banks, had grow to be an important driver of gross sales and the supply of its wealthy market valuation.
The brand new draft guidelines for on-line micro-lending state that web platforms should present 30 per cent of the funding of “joint loans” — a time period the regulators have but to totally outline — which are supplied by their platforms.
Ant presently funds solely 2 per cent of its whole Rmb1.7tn in client loans itself with a lot of the the rest coming from its accomplice banks. Ant disclosed in its itemizing paperwork that revenues from the CreditTech unit accounted for nearly 40 per cent of its whole gross sales.
Ant extracts an estimated charge of two.5 per cent from its accomplice banks for every mortgage it arranges and takes on not one of the danger. However the brand new rules might pressure Ant to maneuver considerably extra of these loans on to its personal books.
Iris Tan, senior fairness analyst at Morningstar, mentioned in her “base-case” situation of light-touch regulation, Ant may have the ability to restrict loans on its steadiness sheet to five per cent of the entire. That might nonetheless decrease its return on invested capital and will carry Ant’s valuation down by 10 to 15 per cent, she mentioned.
Ms Tan’s estimate assumes that regulators would require Ant to supply 30 per cent of loans itself however enable it to keep away from holding most of them on its steadiness sheet, presumably by securitising the loans and promoting them on to different events, amongst different measures.
However “based mostly on a regulatory pattern of treating fintech gamers extra like banks”, Ant might be pressured to carry 20 per cent of the loans on its books in a worst-case situation, she added, probably chopping its valuation by 45 to 50 per cent.
One other analyst at a Chinese language funding financial institution mentioned regulators have been unlikely to be lenient on Ant, particularly when deciding new capital necessities for fintechs.
“[Ant will] need to be below the identical regulatory framework as different banks, and I believe the valuation will dive to comparatively decrease ranges,” the analyst mentioned. He estimated Ant’s price-to-earnings ratio might greater than halve into the 20s or 10s.
Ant beforehand had a trailing price-to-earnings ratio — a measure of valuation — of 48 occasions based mostly on its IPO valuation, that means it was priced on the increased finish of the vary of its China tech friends.
“The other may occur now,” mentioned Kevin Kwek, senior analyst at Bernstein. Non-public banks have a price-to-earnings ratio of 12-14 occasions, though Mr Kwek added Ant’s valuation can be unlikely to fall that low.
Underneath the brand new measures, Ant additionally faces a tortuous regulatory path again to any itemizing. It should apply for a cross-provincial licence to offer on-line microloans from the CBIRC. It’s not but clear whether or not the web lending rules will embody a grace interval, or whether or not Ant should halt a few of its actions as soon as the legislation is enacted.
However first Ant might want to look ahead to the web lending rules to be handed into legislation earlier than it could possibly even apply for a cross-provincial licence. One other current set of rules on monetary holding firms that additionally affected the corporate took a yr to proceed from draft to implementation.
Wang Dan, analyst at Cling Seng Financial institution China, mentioned Ant might nonetheless attempt to persuade regulators it was solely an middleman and never a financial institution. “If Ant solely supplies large information and buyer data, and the banks pay service charges and supply loans . . . then this rule has little impact on them,” she mentioned.
However even when regulators accepted this argument, that may not cease banks from insisting the fintech tackle extra danger by serving to to fund extra joint loans sooner or later.
“As soon as this regulation comes out, banks could also be extra inclined to difficulty joint loans sooner or later to let on-line platforms share their danger,” Ms Wang mentioned.
Extra reporting by Nian Liu in Beijing